Update, October 14, 2026: it is official - the 2027 COLA is 3.6%. September’s CPI-W printed 330.654, above the 330.474 that the table below lists for a 3.6% result. (A correction to that table: it shows the September reading that produces each COLA exactly; because SSA rounds to the nearest tenth, anything from 329.998 to 330.948 rounds to 3.6%.) The exact arithmetic, the dollar figures and what Medicare is projected to take back are in our post on the official 2027 COLA. The estimate history below is kept as it was.
Two of the three inflation readings that decide the 2027 Social Security COLA are now published. That changes this from a forecasting exercise into mostly arithmetic - and the arithmetic says the raise is running at 3.46%, which rounds to 3.5%.
The August inflation report landed on September 11, 2026, and every major forecaster updated within hours. The band tightened and shifted up: it was 3.2% to 3.6% after July, and it is 3.4% to 3.6% now. Only September is still unknown, and below you will find the exact number September has to print for each of those estimates to come true - which is the part almost nobody publishes.
The official 2027 COLA does not exist until the Social Security Administration announces it on October 14, 2026. Everything before that is a projection. But with two months locked, the range of honest projections is now narrow.
Where the 2027 COLA estimates stand right now
| Estimate source | Latest update | 2027 COLA projection | Change since July data |
|---|---|---|---|
| AARP | September 11, 2026 | 3.6% | up from 3.5% |
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) | September 11, 2026 | 3.5% | down from 3.6% |
| Mary Johnson, independent Social Security analyst | September 11, 2026 | 3.5% | up from 3.4% |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) | September 11, 2026 | 3.4% | up from 3.2% |
Three of the four moved up; only TSCL came down. The result is a tighter cluster than last month, and the low-end outlier is gone - CRFB’s 3.2% is now 3.4%, in line with everyone else.
AARP sits highest because its method blends the published CPI-W with Cleveland Federal Reserve inflation projections for September rather than assuming the trend simply continues. TSCL’s 3.5% is effectively the pure two-months-of-three arithmetic.
The trap to avoid: the August report showed the CPI-W up 3.5% over the past twelve months, and the running COLA estimate also rounds to 3.5%. Those are two different quantities that happen to collide this month. The twelve-month inflation rate is not the COLA, and in most months they differ. The section below shows why.
The arithmetic, now that two months are locked
The COLA formula is fixed in law and narrower than most people assume. The Social Security Administration takes the average CPI-W (the index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) for July, August and September of this year, and divides it by the average of the same three months last year.
Last year’s third-quarter average - the baseline the 2027 COLA is measured against - is 317.265. Here is where 2026 stands:
| Month | CPI-W index | Status |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 327.104 | published August 12 |
| August 2026 | 328.481 | published September 11 |
| September 2026 | not yet published | releases October 14 |
Averaging the two published months against the same two months of 2025 gives a running COLA of 3.4609%. That is the honest “if the trend holds” number, and it is why the serious estimates all sit between 3.4% and 3.6%.
Exactly what September has to do
One month carries one third of the weight, so September has to move the index by about 0.95 points to shift the headline COLA by a tenth of a percent. That makes the outcomes unusually easy to map:
| For the 2027 COLA to be | September CPI-W must print | Change vs August | Change vs Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.3% | 327.618 | -0.26% | +2.98% |
| 3.4% | 328.570 | +0.03% | +3.28% |
| 3.5% | 329.522 | +0.32% | +3.58% |
| 3.6% | 330.474 | +0.61% | +3.88% |
| 3.7% | 331.425 | +0.90% | +4.18% |
Two things fall out of this table that are worth more than any forecaster’s headline:
- If September comes in completely flat at the August level, the COLA is 3.39%, which rounds to 3.4%. Flat is the floor of the realistic range, not a disaster scenario. It takes actual deflation in September to drop below 3.4%.
- AARP’s 3.6% requires September to rise 0.61% in a single month. That is a clear acceleration from where the last few months have run, not a continuation. It is the most aggressive number on the board and it is worth knowing that before anchoring on it.
Mary Johnson attributes most of the remaining uncertainty to volatile oil prices. Energy is the component most capable of moving a single month by half a percent in either direction.
Only these three months count. A hot inflation report in May or a cool one in November changes nothing.
What the range means in real dollars
The Social Security Administration’s latest published figure for the average retired-worker benefit is $2,085.98 a month, from its July 2026 Monthly Statistical Snapshot. Applying the live estimate range:
| COLA | Monthly increase | New monthly benefit | Over a full year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | +$70.92 | $2,156.90 | +$851 |
| 3.5% | +$73.01 | $2,158.99 | +$876 |
| 3.6% | +$75.10 | $2,161.08 | +$901 |
Your own increase is your benefit times the final percentage, so a larger check means a larger dollar raise. For comparison, the COLA now in effect - the 2026 adjustment - is 2.8%, worth about $58 a month on that same benefit. A 3.4% to 3.6% result would be the largest COLA since 2023, and above the roughly 3.1% ten-year average.
One number you will see quoted that does not match this table: TSCL says its 3.5% estimate is worth $67.90 a month. That is not a contradiction - TSCL uses the average across all beneficiaries ($1,940.08), while the table above uses retired workers only ($2,085.98). Both are real SSA figures describing different groups. On the all-beneficiary average, 3.5% is $67.90; on the retired-worker average, it is $73.01.
A COLA protects a benefit’s purchasing power; it does not make anyone better off in real terms. If you are still building the savings that will sit alongside Social Security, our retirement calculator shows what your own contributions could grow into, and our guide to how much you need to retire puts a Social Security check next to the 401(k) and IRA side of the plan.
The Medicare Part B offset - different from last year
Most retirees have their Medicare Part B premium deducted straight from their Social Security check, so the premium increase eats part of the raise before it reaches the bank.
The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, per CMS. The Medicare Trustees Report projects $209.50 for 2027 - an increase of $6.60, or 3.25%. CMS will not set the actual premium until around November 2026, so treat $209.50 as a projection rather than an announced number. Some private forecasters put 2027 Part B higher, in the $216 to $219 range, arguing the Trustees have historically under-shot.
Here is what makes this year different: at 3.25%, the projected Part B increase runs below the likely COLA of 3.4% to 3.6%. In several recent years the premium rose faster than the COLA and swallowed most of the raise. On the Trustees’ projection, that does not happen for 2027.
| COLA | Gross monthly raise | Less Part B increase | Net raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | +$70.92 | -$6.60 | +$64.32 |
| 3.5% | +$73.01 | -$6.60 | +$66.41 |
| 3.6% | +$75.10 | -$6.60 | +$68.50 |
For the pieces of your 2027 benefit that are already fixed - like the full retirement age reaching 67 - see our companion post on the 2027 Social Security changes beyond the COLA.
Two things that changed in September beyond the number
The payroll tax cap went bipartisan. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Moreno are working together on legislation to lift or remove the cap on earnings subject to Social Security payroll tax. Cross-party movement on the cap is genuinely new - it has been a single-party talking point for years. Nothing is law, and none of it affects the 2027 COLA, but it is the most significant shift in the Social Security policy conversation this month.
The 2027 taxable wage base is projected at $190,200, up from $184,500 in 2026, under the 2026 Trustees Report’s intermediate assumptions. That is the ceiling on earnings subject to the 6.2% Social Security tax. Like the COLA, the official figure is announced on October 14. If you want to see how the wage base affects a paycheck today, our take-home pay calculator applies the current $184,500 cap.
If you are a federal retiree, your number is different. FERS retirees do not receive the full COLA when it exceeds 3%. The statutory formula subtracts a percentage point, so a 3.6% Social Security COLA translates to roughly 2.6% for most FERS annuitants. CSRS retirees get the full amount.
The dates that matter
- September 11, 2026 - the August CPI report landed, the second of the three counting months. Every major forecaster refreshed the same day.
- October 14, 2026 - the September CPI report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, completing the third quarter. SSA announces the official 2027 COLA the same morning, along with the 2027 taxable wage base.
- Around November 2026 - CMS announces the actual 2027 Medicare Part B premium.
- December 31, 2026 - SSI recipients get the first payment reflecting the new COLA, early because January 1 is a holiday.
- January 2027 - Social Security benefit checks reflect the increase. Technically the COLA applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027.
FAQ
Is 3.5% the final 2027 COLA?
No. It is where the running arithmetic sits with two of three months published, and it matches TSCL’s and Mary Johnson’s estimates. AARP is at 3.6% and CRFB at 3.4%. The final number is announced October 14, 2026, and it depends entirely on the September inflation reading. If September is flat, the answer is 3.4%; it takes a 0.32% monthly rise to land on 3.5%.
Why is the “3.5% inflation” number the same as the COLA estimate this month?
Coincidence. The 3.5% inflation figure is how much the CPI-W rose over the twelve months to August. The COLA compares the July-to-September average of 2026 against the same three months of 2025. They are different calculations that happen to produce a similar number right now - in July they did not (3.4% inflation, about 3.1% running COLA).
What happens if September inflation falls?
The COLA falls with it, but less than you might expect, because September is only one third of the calculation. September would have to drop 0.26% from August just to pull the COLA down to 3.3%. A mild cooling still leaves 3.4%.
When would I actually see the bigger payment?
January 2027 for Social Security benefits. SSI recipients see it slightly earlier, in the payment dated December 31, 2026, because the January 1 payment date falls on a holiday.
Why do TSCL, AARP, Mary Johnson and CRFB still disagree?
They differ only in how they project September. AARP blends in Cleveland Fed inflation projections; TSCL runs closer to the published arithmetic. The whole disagreement, 3.4% to 3.6%, is worth about $4 a month on the average retired-worker benefit.
Does a bigger COLA mean I am better off?
No - it means prices rose faster. The COLA is designed to keep a benefit’s purchasing power flat, not to increase it. That is the same reason retirement withdrawal frameworks like the 4% rule build in annual inflation adjustments: keeping pace is the goal, and anything beyond that has to come from your own savings.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - CPI-W series CWUR0000SA0, retrieved directly from the BLS public API on September 16, 2026: July 2026 = 327.104, August 2026 = 328.481, and the 2025 third-quarter values (316.349, 317.306, 318.139) giving the 317.265 baseline
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - CPI release schedule: the September 2026 CPI publishes October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET
- The Senior Citizens League - “TSCL Predicts COLA at 3.5% With One Month to Announcement” (September 11, 2026), including the $67.90 illustration on the $1,940.08 all-beneficiary average
- AARP - 2027 COLA estimate of 3.6%, updated after the August CPI-W report (September 11, 2026)
- CNBC - Mary Johnson’s revised 3.5% estimate and her comment on oil-price volatility (September 11, 2026)
- Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget - 2027 COLA on pace for about 3.4% (September 11, 2026)
- Social Security Administration - “Cost-of-Living Increase and Other Determinations for 2026,” Federal Register: the 2.8% COLA, the CPI-W third-quarter methodology, the 317.265 Q3 2025 average, and payment timing (November 3, 2025)
- Social Security Administration - Monthly Statistical Snapshot, July 2026: average retired-worker benefit $2,085.98; all-beneficiary average $1,940.08
- CMS - 2026 Medicare Parts A and B premiums fact sheet: 2026 standard Part B premium $202.90 (November 14, 2025)
- 2026 Medicare Trustees Report (CMS Office of the Actuary) - projected 2027 standard Part B premium of $209.50 and the projected $190,200 taxable wage base, under intermediate assumptions (June 2026). Both remain projections until officially announced.
- CNBC - bipartisan Warren-Moreno work on the Social Security payroll tax cap (September 13, 2026)
